體驗區
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| 篇名 |
2020—2035年我国义务教育阶段资源配置研究
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| 並列篇名 |
Research on the Resource Allocation of Compulsory Education in China from 2020 to 2035
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| 作者 |
乔锦忠(Qiao Jinzhong)
、沈敬轩(Shen Jingxuan)
、李汉东(Li Handong)
、钟秉林(Zhong Binglin)
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| 中文摘要 |
教育事业发展需要有前瞻性，在《中国教育现代化2035》目标的指引下，有必要对2020—2035期间，我国义务教育阶段的学龄人口变动情况及其对教育资源配置的影响进行深入研究。本研究采用Leslie矩阵的队列要素法和实地访谈法，对2020—2035年期间我国义务教育阶段在校生数、学校数、教师数和所需经费等进行了预测，结果显示：随着生育率和出生人口下降，我国义务教育阶段学生人数呈现出持续下降趋势；与2020年预测值相比，2035年我国义务教育阶段在校生总量将下降约3000万；按现行学校规模计算，2026年（峰值年份）城区需新建小学4000所，2030年（峰值年份）城区需新建初中4000所，农村地区将有大量小学校舍闲置（3.73万）；按现行师生比计算，义务教育阶段专任教师的需求量在下降，与2020年相比，2035年小学教师过剩约150万，初中过剩约37万。2031年，我国城区义务教育学生数将超过镇区，义务教育将总体进入以城市教育为主体的时代，教育资源配置应因地制宜，因时而动，充分考虑学生由农村向镇区和城区的转移。建议科学规划学校布局；适当提高办学标准，降低生师比，缩小班级规模，及时补充优秀教师；统筹优化学前、托育和义务教育阶段的教师资源配置，不断优化教师队伍结构。
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| 英文摘要 |
The development of education should be forward-looking. Under the guidance of China’s Education Modernization 2035 Plan, it is necessary to conduct research on the change of the school-age population and the allocation of educational resources during the period of 2020—2035. The queue element method based on Leslie matrix and interview were adopted to predict the number of students, schools, teachers and the required funds of compulsory education during the period of 2020—2035. The results showed that: compared with 2020, the total number of students in compulsory education will drop by 30 million in 2035. Based on the current school size, 5,000 new primary schools should be built until 2026, with 4,000 new middle schools should be built until 2030. A large number of primary schools in rural areas will lie idle (37.3 thousand); Based on the current teacher-student ratio, the demand for full-time teachers in compulsory education is decreasing, with a surplus of about 1.49 million primary school teachers and 370 thousand junior high school teachers. In 2031, the number of compulsory education students in urban areas will exceed that in townships, and compulsory education will generally enter an era dominated by urban education. The transfer of students from rural areas to townships and urban areas should be fully considered, while it is suggested to plan the distribution of schools scientifically, improve the school-running standards, reduce the student- teacher ratio and the class size, optimize the allocation of teacher resources between preschool, nursery education and compulsory education.
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| 頁次 |
059-080
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| 關鍵詞 |
教育现代化
、义务教育
、资源配置
、人口预测
、modernization of education
、compulsory education
、resource allocation
、population projection
、CSSCI
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| 卷期 |
39:12
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| 日期 |
202112
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| 刊名 |
華東師範大學學報(教育科學版)
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| 出版單位 |
華東師範大學
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| DOI |
10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2021.12.005
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