體驗區
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| 篇名 |
高校扩招与生育：我国生育率变动的再解释
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| 並列篇名 |
College Expansion and Fertility: A Reinterpretation on Change of China’s Fertility Rate
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| 作者 |
李子联(LI Zi-lian)
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| 中文摘要 |
高校扩招通过提高劳动参与、延迟婚育年龄和转变生育观念而直接和间接地抑制了微观个体的生育行为，进而降低了中国社会的总和生育率。脉冲响应分析进一步发现，高校扩招在总体上对总和生育率存在持久而强劲的负向冲击，且这一效应在扩招空间较大的西部省市尤为明显；东部和中部省市高校扩招对生育率的影响则具有先负后正的特征，其中正向冲击的“异常效应”本质上仍是其初始扩招规模较大所带来的负向“滞后效应”。因此，应通过提升高等教育质量来促进人力资本的积累，以缓解劳动要素减少所导致的供给不足；应建立高质量的社会托儿体系，以减少劳动参与率上升所带来的“收入惩罚”和“时间惩罚”；应进行人本导向的生育教育，以在实现生育率观念再转变的同时适当地增强生育意愿。
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| 英文摘要 |
College expansion inhibits micro-individuals birth behave and decreases social fertility rate with the channel of increasing labor participation, postponing marriage and fertility rage and changing fertility conception directly and indirectly. Empirically, negative impact effects of college expansion influencing fertility rate overall are durable and strong. And these effects are even obvious in the western province with larger expansion space. However, influences of college expansion in eastern and central provinces on fertility character with “first negative and post positive”. This “abnormal effect” of positive impact is also negative “lag effect” form larger initial expansion scale in essence. Therefore, we should promote human capital accumulation and creative talents cultivation by promoting higher education quality to decrease negative influence of insufficient supply from labor factor decrease, establish and develop social system of child care with high quality to decrease “income punishment” and “time punishment” from labor participation increase, and take a people-oriented education in the higher education process to properly enhance fertility desire in the process of realizing re-change of fertility concept.
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| 頁次 |
146-159
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| 關鍵詞 |
高校扩招
、生育率
、高等教育质量
、冲击效应
、college expansion
、fertility rate
、higher education quality
、impact effect
、CSSCI
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| 卷期 |
17:6
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| 日期 |
202112
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| 刊名 |
教育學報
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| 出版單位 |
北京師範大學
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| DOI |
10.14082/j.cnki.1673-1298.2021.06.014
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